The H-1B lottery is no longer a purely random process. Under the new framework, USCIS continues to use a lottery when demand exceeds supply, but the chances of selection now vary based on the wage level offered for the position. In simple terms, not all entries are treated equally anymore. When a senior, highly compensated role and an entry-level position compete in the same pool, probability is no longer flat.

Understanding Wage Levels and Selection Chances

USCIS relies on the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) system, which divides wages into four levels based on skill, experience, and responsibility within a specific occupation and location.

A Level I wage generally reflects entry-level roles with limited experience and supervision. Under the weighted system, a Level I registration enters the lottery once. A Level II wage, representing more experience and independent work, enters the pool twice. Level III wages, typically for advanced or specialized roles, enter three times. Level IV wages, associated with senior, highly skilled positions, enter the lottery four times.

Each beneficiary is still counted only once toward the annual cap, but the number of entries affects the odds. As a result, estimated chances of selection rise materially with wage level. Level IV roles may see selection probabilities exceeding 60 percent, Level III around the mid-40 percent range, while Level I roles experience a much lower likelihood. The lottery still involves chance, but it is no longer blind. When odds are multiplied, randomness gives way to weighting.

How the $100K Fee Alters Demand

This wage-based model assumes steady participation across wage levels and locations. That assumption becomes less reliable when combined with a proposed $100,000 filing fee for H-1B cases initiated from outside the United States. Even if a role qualifies for a higher wage level and stronger lottery odds, the cost of entry changes employer behavior.

At some point, employers stop asking what their chances are and start asking whether filing makes sense at all. Higher odds do not matter if demand falls. If overseas filings decline sharply, the pool shrinks, and projected selection percentages may no longer reflect real-world outcomes.

Shifts in the Applicant Pool

The combined effect of wage weighting and high external costs is likely to favor candidates already inside the United States. Employers may prefer predictable cost structures over higher-risk overseas hiring. When fewer participants enter the lottery, the math changes. When fewer people play, the odds tell a different story.

The change in the H-1B lottery ties probability directly to wage levels, creating a clear hierarchy of chances. Level IV has the strongest odds, Level I the weakest. At the same time, the $100K fee has the potential to suppress demand from outside the U.S., altering participation patterns. The new system is no longer just about chance; it is about probability shaped by wages, costs, and employer risk tolerance.

By: Rahul Reddy

Rahul Reddy is the founding partner of Reddy Neumann Brown PC. He founded our firm in 1997 and has over 28 years of experience practicing employment-based immigration. Rahul‘s vast knowledge of the complex immigration system makes him an invaluable resource and an expert in the field. His personal experience with the immigration system has made him empathetic to each of his clients’ cases and empowered him to help others achieve the American Dream.

Rahul‘s dedication to serving the immigrant community is evident, from his daily free conference calls to his weekly immigration Q&As on Facebook and YouTube Live. He is an active member of the immigrant community and one of the founders of ITServe Alliance. He has been a member of American Immigration Lawyers Association since 1995.